“There is a 42.3% chance we will go up.”

That’s what Mathew Benham, the chairman of Brentford FC and Danish club Midtjylland said when asked about Brentford’s chances of promotion two years ago.

Brentford did go up, and then went on to finish 5th in the Championship last season, punching well above their weight. Despite this, their well respected manager Mark Warburton was released, along with the assistant manager and sporting director.

Why?

Because Benham is no ordinary sports owner. His approach to football is centred around data and mathematical models.

In December Brentford were 5th in the table but Benham’s analytics showed that they were really the 11th best team in the league. The difference was due to luck and randomness, Benham argued. “The table is notoriously inaccurate because there’s just way more randomness than people understand,” he says.

Benham believes in his data so much that he effectively sacked the club’s manager because he had had a lucky season and deserved to have finished lower. This caused a backlash of criticism from the media and fans, but there’s good reason to have faith in Benham’s philosophy.

He has made a fortune on sports betting over the years using a mathematical model that he says is more reflective of a team’s strength than the league table itself. And his investment in Midtjylland has already yielded some spectacular results. The club won their first ever trophy last season, finishing top of the Danish Superliga using the same model in place at Brentford.

“We look into all possibilities in football, because there are a lot of inefficiencies,” says Ramus Ankersen, Benham’s right hand man at Midtjylland. The transfer market, set pieces and player nutrition are areas where they say there are inefficiencies. Midtjylland’s focus on set pieces saw them score nearly a goal a game from them last season.

“We can’t outspend the competition so we have to outthink them” says Ankerson.

But coaches that focus purely on stats might forget that every game demands different aspects. For example if you’re a full back playing against Ronaldo or Messi you maybe attack less than if you were playing a less talented opponent.

Some attributes such as reading of the game are also hard to quantify with numbers. It’s something you feel and see – can a machine really tell you that? To compete with the best in the world there has to be a balance.

Whether you believe in Benham’s model or think he’s destined for failure with Brentford, it’s a fascinating project that will be interesting to observe next season and beyond.

“Obviously, the next couple years we’ll find out if we’re right or not” Says Benham.

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